Big Trouble in Little Moscow: Wagner, Prigozhin, and Putin

In one of the more mindboggling turns of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I get to write the following sentence: a former caterer-turned-mercenary-warlord led an armed insurrection against the Russian government.  His Wagner forces got within a few hundred kilometers of Moscow—with no indication that anything could stop them—before abruptly deciding he was done and accepting exile in Belarus.  This was, as they say, big news. 

Countless pundits and internet warriors have examined those wild hours ad nauseum to see what they might mean, and the general consensus is that it’s a bad look for Putin, but it’s too early to tell what will come of it.  I agree with that sentiment, but I’m more interested in the deal that resulted in Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, calling it quits.  Theoretically, Belarus’s dictator, Aleksandr Lukashenko, brokered the deal, but he’s Putin’s purse pooch, so let’s not give him too much credit.  This was a deal between Putin and Prigozhin, and I would give a not-insubstantial amount of money to have a recording of that conversation.  And fluency in Russian.

Prigozhin’s goal was to win his feud with Russian military leadership, primarily the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu.  Both men were part of Putin’s inner circle, but Prigozhin overestimated Putin’s commitment to him and Wagner as Putin chose to back Shoigu instead.  Once that happened, Prigozhin had to find an out— preferably one that doesn’t involve him committing suicide by being thrown out of a window. 

Obviously, part of that deal was driven by Prigozhin realizing he was in over his head.  Sure, given the lack of any real defenses between where his forces were and Moscow, there was a solid chance he could take the Kremlin (assuming the Russian Air Force didn’t carpet bomb them).  But what then?  The odds of the oligarchs, Russian military, and Russian security services pledging loyalty to Prigozhin was nil, and he had to have recognized that.  His goal from the deal is easy—survival.  His card to play?  2,500 armed veteran mercenaries a few hours from the Kremlin.

Putin shared the same goal out of this deal.  When you’re at the top of a vicious pile of knife-wielding autocrats, the goal of every day is survival.  What changed here was Prigozhin bringing the contest out of the shadows into the open.  That’s bad juju for any leader whose entire power base relies on fear.  Putin, then, had three options.  He could throw in with Prigozhin, crush the mercenary without mercy, or find a middle ground.  The first option was out because it would make Putin look weaker than the insurrection already had.  The second was out because he didn’t have the forces to do so in a timely manner, and he’s already losing credibility with the oligarchs, the military, and average Russians over the boondoggle of his Ukraine invasion.

Compromise remained the only viable option.  Prigozhin agreed to not play his trump card of sacking the Kremlin, and Putin agreed to not kill Prigozhin.  Granted, we’ll see how long that promise holds—Putin’s enemies tend to have prematurely shortened lifespans. 

The interesting part of this deal is that it seems Prigozhin gets to keep his card.  Belarus has announced that they’ll be playing host to Wagner going forward, and the mercenary outfit has not ceased its recruitment efforts across Russia.  So unless Prigozhin mysteriously disappears or shoots himself in the back several times, he has the potential to flip the table again on Putin.  I don’t know who in the writing room is putting together these outlandish storylines, but we’re only halfway through season 2023 of Humanity and it’s already gone off the rails.  I don’t know if I’m dreading or excited for the season finale.